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Let's say you have a table with historical stock
price data, two technical analysis functions and
you would like to get a prediction for tomorrow's
Closing price:
Step 1. You click on PredictorXL from the menu
in MS Excel
After the launch of the program you will see
the form of PredictorXL.
Step 2. Using the mouse button choose the range
of numerical data (Inputs) of the table that you
want to use and which is influencing on the outputs
and choose the range for the Outputs.
Step 3. Set the following parameters:
- Learning rate, which is influencing on the
speed and quality of training.
- Lag - number of predicted values. (If set
to 1, then it will predict only tomorrow value,
if set to 2 - it will predict for tomorrow and
the day after tomorrow.)
- Error - error value, when neural net will
automatically stop training.
- Momentum, which is influencing on the speed
and quality of training.
Step 4. Click on New button, click Start Training
button and click Show Process button. PredictorXL
dialog will transform and will be showing graph
of training. Blue line shows real values, red line
shows predicted values:
Step 5. When the training will be complete, you
will receive notification box. After it, click Predict
button and the following dialog will appear :
We have got the following prediction result:
You received the result and you want to know
what PredictorXL would predict if you launched it
yesterday. So, you need decrease Inputs and Outputs
array:
Step 6. Click on New button and click Start Training
button:
Step 5. When the training will be complete, you
will receive notification box. After it, click Predict
button and the following dialog will appear :
And you see, that error is only $0.69
and showed tendency of price movement is correct.
So if you would gave an order
to broker for the next day (today is 07.06.3002)
to Buy 100 shares at Open and Sell 100 shares at
Close, then you could gain $117 (or $1.17
per share) during only one trade day!
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